Luck Is Not a Strategy

Success in business is often attributed to a combination of skill, strategy, and timing. However, there is an uncomfortable question that every founder and CEO must ask at some point: Are we successful because we are truly good at what we do, or have we simply been lucky?

The answer lies in what you do with luck. Every company encounters moments of fortune—both good and bad. But as Jim Collins outlines in Great by Choice, what separates truly great leaders from the rest is their Return on Luck (ROL)—their ability to maximize lucky breaks and mitigate unlucky circumstances. Luck, by itself, is never a strategy. But how you respond to it is.

The Illusion and Opportunity of Luck

Many entrepreneurs experience an initial surge of success that seems to confirm their abilities. A strong economy, a timely product, or an underserved market can propel a company forward without requiring exceptional execution. However, the illusion of luck can be dangerous. When external conditions shift—competition increases, the economy tightens, or customer expectations evolve—companies that have coasted on luck alone find themselves struggling to adapt.

On the other hand, great leaders recognize luck as an opportunity. They understand that luck is not a business model; it is a variable that must be capitalized on. They do not wait for luck to dictate their trajectory—they impose discipline, strategy, and relentless execution to turn fortunate events into enduring success.

The Foundation of Being Good

Truly great companies are not built on luck alone. They are built on deliberate, repeatable processes that drive sustainable performance. The best leaders understand that their success is determined not by chance but by the following key factors:

1. Disciplined Execution – High-performing companies establish clear priorities, align their teams around measurable goals, and ensure consistent follow-through. Team members know what a good day or week looks like. A well-run organization does not depend on good fortune; it thrives on precision and accountability.

2. Data-Driven Decision Making – Exceptional leaders do not rely on intuition alone. They track key performance indicators, analyze market trends, and use real-time data to inform strategic choices. This allows them to pivot when necessary and double down on what works.

3. Resilient Culture – Companies that sustain success cultivate a culture of ownership, problem-solving, and continuous improvement. They attract and retain top talent who are driven not by short-term gains but by a commitment to long-term excellence.

4. Committed People – The most enduring companies are built by individuals who are deeply committed to the mission, purpose, and guiding values of the organization. They are not just employees; they are true believers in where the company is going. They have clarity on how their unique skills and efforts contribute to the larger vision, and they push themselves to maximize their impact. These team members row hard and deep, ensuring that their contributions drive the company forward with intensity and focus. When a team is fully aligned and invested in the mission, their discretionary effort, resilience, and shared sense of purpose become an unstoppable force that no competitor can easily replicate.

5. Scalability and Systems – Luck may provide an initial boost, but only well-defined processes and systems allow a business to scale efficiently. Leaders who are truly good at what they do build organizations that function effectively even in their absence.

Maximizing Return on Luck

The most successful leaders do not just experience luck—they capitalize on it. They ask: How can we extract the maximum possible value from this opportunity? When luck presents a growth opportunity, they scale aggressively while maintaining disciplined execution. When faced with adversity, they use it as fuel to refine strategy, develop resilience, and uncover new efficiencies.

This is Return on Luck in action. The companies that endure are not those that are merely fortunate, but those that turn every lucky or unlucky event into a strategic advantage.

Make Luck Work for You

While luck can play a role in a company’s early trajectory, the best leaders do not rely on it. Instead, they take proactive steps to ensure that whether luck is good or bad, they always emerge stronger. This means fostering alignment within their teams, maintaining rigorous execution habits, and building a business that can withstand inevitable market fluctuations.

Ask yourself: If external conditions changed tomorrow, would your company continue to thrive? If the answer is uncertain, it is time to focus on becoming truly good at what you do—so that success is not a matter of chance but a product of your leadership and strategy.

Being lucky may get you noticed. Being good will keep you in the game. And maximizing your Return on Luck will make you and your team unstoppable.